Note to readers: The following commentary raises questions about the 500 MW natural gas generating plant that NB Power is proposing for the ecologically sensitive Chignecto Isthmus near Centre Village in the Town of Tantramar.  NB Power announced last month that it had awarded a contract to the American company PROENERGY to build and operate the plant for at least 25 years on a 550 acre site that NB Power bought nearly a year ago. The project would consist of 10 natural gas generators that would use low-sulphur diesel fuel as a backup.

By Bradley Walters, PhD, Professor of Geography & Environment, Mount Allison University

Mount Allison Professor Bradley Walters. Photo: Mount Allison University

I have real concerns about the potential for significant local impacts from the proposed Centre Village gas power plant project on wildlife, water and air quality, but will restrict my comments here to the issue of wider energy policy and greenhouse gas emissions. These are subjects I’ve been discussing with my students for many years at Mount Allison University.

The way this project is being framed seems appealing. The proponents are presenting it as a means to transition away from dirtier fossil fuels like coal and heavy oil while enabling the expansion of intermittent renewables such as wind and solar. The idea is that there needs to be a way of providing baseload power when the wind isn’t blowing or the sun isn’t shining. Baseload power is the minimum amount of electricity that needs to be supplied to the electrical grid at any given time.

If we indeed had to choose between fossil fuel power options, natural gas is probably the better one for this purpose. However, I’m highly skeptical that we’re limited in our choices and that fossil fuels are the answer.

‘Clean’ power sources

New Brunswick already has access to large amounts of ‘clean’, so-called, ‘baseload’ power in the form of Point Lepreau nuclear, Mactaquac hydro, and hydro imports from Quebec. In particular, Hydro Québec (HQ) is a possible source of massive, additional ‘clean’, baseload power given our province already imports electricity from it and HQ exports even more south of the border (New England, New York State) and to Ontario.

Is there a reason that increased electricity imports from HQ are not on the table as a viable alternative to both reducing existing fossil emissions from NB sources and backstopping intermittent renewables?

Such a scenario seems all the more relevant given the heightened talk of a so-called ‘Atlantic Loop’ that would integrate electricity production and transmission across the Atlantic Provinces and possibly Quebec. And then, there are the proposals now being seriously considered for massive development of offshore wind in Nova Scotia.

In short, the days of thinking provincially about electricity supply and demand rather than regionally and nationally/internationally are coming to an end. Is the proposed Centre Village project being effectively evaluated in light of these regional trends and related planning?

Battery storage

If backstopping NB’s intermittent renewables (existing and planned) from existing baseload sources is genuinely not an option (although I doubt that is the case), then I wonder whether alternatives like battery storage paired with specific intermittent, renewable power sources has been considered as an alternative.

Large-scale battery storage costs have declined rapidly in recent years, so much so that these are increasingly being chosen as the default option by power developers in the United States, Europe and elsewhere. Granted, the up-front costs of building such storage units are sizeable, but the up-front costs of battery storage need to be weighed against their reduced carbon emissions, lower local environmental effects, and gains in long-term energy and financial security.

For example, natural gas prices are currently low by historical standards, but aren’t likely to stay that way. When gas prices inevitably rise, will the economics of natural gas-fired power still look appealing compared to the alternatives?

It’s also worth noting that massive investments in Canadian battery manufacturing are currently underway, mostly in Ontario. This should lead to continued declines in battery costs and also offer New Brunswick a Canadian rather than an American-made solution to the need for baseload power. In the decision to go with gas-fired power, were such considerations even evaluated and if not, why not?

Finally, it appears that the proposed Centre Village generators will burn fracked gas from the U.S. While it’s important to appreciate that natural gas offers a far more efficient way to generate power on-site compared to conventional coal or oil, whole life-cycle assessments of fracked natural gas that take into account the energy consumed by extraction processes, climate impacts of methane leakages, etc., suggest it may not offer much net gain in terms of overall greenhouse gas emissions.

In short, local efficiencies and effects are only part of the picture and there are many key questions that need to be answered before this natural gas plant goes ahead.

Bradley Walters, PhD, Professor of Geography & Environment, Mount Allison University, Sackille, NB

Note: See below for details of public meeting on Monday, August 11th.