L-R: J.P Lewis, (UNB); Jamie Gillies, (St. Thomas); Tobin LeBlanc Haley (UNB); Roger Ouellette, (Moncton); Gabriel Arsenault, (Moncton); Joanna Everitt (UNB)

Six New Brunswick politics professors say it’s hard to predict which of the two major parties will win the provincial election on October 21st because there are so many unusual circumstances at play.

“This is an election and a time of chaos and transition,” said University of New Brunswick Professor Tobin LeBlanc Haley, speaking during a panel discussion at Mount Allison University on Saturday.

Professor Tobin LeBlanc Haley. Photo: UNB

“I don’t feel as sure-footed as I usually do in thinking about the outcome of an election,” she added.

Haley went on mention several factors that contribute to election uncertainty including:

• the slow transition period out of the COVID pandemic,
• economic hardship at a time of a government budget surplus,
• what she called the premier’s “fearmongering” over the Mi’kmaw land title claim and,
• the rise of U.S. and Alberta-style polarized politics and hate over the Higgs government’s change to school policy 713 requiring parental consent before teachers can use a child’s chosen first name or pronoun if they’re under 16.

“And we also have for the first time, a woman who has a really good chance of being premier,” Haley concluded.

One sure thing

However, the professors did agree with their colleague Roger Ouellette of the Université de Moncton on one certainty.

“We have 49 ridings in New Brunswick, 17 ridings are majority Francophone and I can tell you, Higgs and his PC party will have none of their candidates elected in these ridings,” Ouellette predicted.

Professor Roger Ouellette. Photo: Gov’t of New Brunswick

He conceded that there could be some doubt about one of the 17  — the riding of Kent North — where Green MLA Kevin Arseneau may win re-election.

If he loses there however, the Liberals will win Kent North and not the PCs.

The professors also seemed to agree that Green MLA Megan Mitton will likely win re-election in the new riding of Tantramar while Green leader David Coon will probably win in his new riding of Fredericton-Lincoln.

Ouellette noted, however, there’s a chance that a strong challenge from the Liberals could split the vote giving the Fredericton-Lincoln seat to the Progressive Conservatives.

Cities will decide

The professors also agreed that the election will be decided in Saint John, Moncton and Fredericton, New Brunswick’s three main cities.

Ouellette said he’s watching Moncton South, a swing riding that he noted has voted for the winning party in every election except in 2018.

“If Moncton South goes to the Liberals,” he said, “I think the Liberals will form a government, majority or at least a minority.”

[The candidates in Moncton South are Higgs cabinet minister Greg Turner for the PCs, Université de Moncton Professor Claire Johnson for the Liberals and Vincent Merola, community development officer for social inclusion with the City of Moncton for the Greens.]

How will newcomers vote?

Professor Joanna Everitt. Photo: UNB

Professor Joanna Everitt of the University of New Brunswick said the election outcome is also uncertain because of the tens of thousands of new voters who have moved here since the last election from other provinces and from around the world.

Everitt said an official at Elections New Brunswick told her recently that he can’t recall seeing as many applications from people asking to be added to the voters’ list as he has in the last few weeks.

“Who are those individuals and what are they thinking and how do they relate to the traditional party system that we’ve had here in New Brunswick?” she asked.

How will these new voters align with the New Brunswick political system that was traditionally French-Catholic-Liberal versus English-Protestant-Conservative, she wondered.

“You’ve got a fair number of new people and a thousand or so voters can change the dynamics of a riding that has only several thousand voters in the first place,” Everitt said.

Main issues

Professor Jamie Gillies. Photo: St. Thomas University

“Affordability is the number one issue to me in this election,” said St. Thomas Professor Jamie Gillies.

He mentioned the cost of living, rising property taxes and said that the Liberal and Green promises to bring in rent caps should appeal to tenants more than their pledges to establish more health clinics and focus on retaining nurses.

“Well that affects the nurses and that affects doctors and so forth, but people like the tangible things that they can relate to,” Gillies said.

Promises

Université de Moncton Professor Gabriel Arsenault said he’s been studying election promises and notes that the Liberals and Greens have been making many: 23 so far for the Greens and 13 for the Liberals, while the Conservatives so far, have made only two.

He noted that in the previous two elections, Higgs and his PCs made remarkably few promises.

“It’s characteristic of this government,” he said.

Arsenault said he’s impressed by the amount of detail contained in party disclosure statements available on the Elections NB website under the heading Transparency in Election Commitments.

“We’ve been hearing interesting, bold promises from all three parties.

Professor Gabriel Arsenault. Photo: U de M

He mentioned the PC promise to reduce sales taxes by two points phased in over two years, beginning with the 2025/2026 budget, a promise that the Conservatives calculate would cost $250 million in the first year rising to $450 million in each of the following three.

“The Liberals are promising to provide a free universal breakfast in all schools and a pay-what-you-can lunch in all schools,” Arsenault said.

According to their disclosure statement, the Liberals calculate that promise would cost about $27 million in each of four years.

“You can really see how transparency is a double-edged sword,” he said.

“I’ve never seen such transparency in an electoral pledge. But, on the other hand, the calculations make no sense. There’s no way it will cost $27 million and it’s for everyone to see.”

Arsenault also mentioned the Green promise to raise welfare rates by 20%, a promise the party calculates will cost about $50 million per year in each of four years.

Trudeau factor

Professor Joanna Everitt noted that in tough economic times, people tend to blame their leaders and are clearly blaming federal Liberal Prime Minister Justin Trudeau.

Jamie Gillies agreed.

“People hate Justin Trudeau,” he said, adding he has people coming up to him on the street saying, “I hate this guy.”

Gillies said people also don’t like the federal partnership between the Liberals and the NDP because they didn’t vote for it.

“Higgs is pushing this, Liberal-Green, ‘If we don’t get to a majority government, that’s what you’re going to get’ and people don’t want that,” he said.

“That is the strongest argument I think Higgs has.”

Gillies added that Trudeau’s unpopularity could be costly for Susan Holt’s Liberals in what should be a change election in tough economic times.

“If the Liberals can’t win in New Brunswick in an economic climate like this with a leader who is all about hope and change, then that brand is dead,” he concluded.